J.H. Naner's 2006 Baseball Preview

Alright, I have no Stats games to do and I'm a loser, so I'll spend an hour or so here on a Friday giving my 2006 MLB predictions.

AL East
1. Boston Red Sox- Okay, I know a lot of people think they'll finish third, and I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, but I really like the offseason moves they made. I think Coco Crisp will be just as good as Damon and he doesn't throw like his arm is a limp noodle. The defense on the infield should also be improved with Alex Gonzalez at short. Loretta is a solid pickup, and they got Josh Beckett. Plus Schilling and Foulke cannot be as bad as last year.

Surprise contributer- Rudy Seanez.
Weakness factor- No gaping holes, so I'll say Julian Tavarez going crazy and shooting up the clubhouse is the biggest risk.

2. New York Yankees- Okay, the lineup is ridiculously good and I know they had some pitching injuries last year. But I refuse to believe Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small will pitch like last year. Kyle Farnsworth could fill in to replace Tom Gordon without a problem, but he could also be too distracted trying to pick up chicks and have an era of 5.50. Tough to pick against them, but I just think the Red Sox rotation is significantly better.

Surprise contributer- Not really a surprise, but Robinson Cano was extremely solid as a rookie and if he improves a little on defense and offense he could be a superstar in no time.
Weakness factor- I don't trust the bullpen.

3. Toronto Blue Jays- Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know the Blue Jays went out and spent some money. But throwing $95 million at A.J. I act like I'm 5 and didn't have to pitch against Boston and the Yankees ten times a year Burnett was a bad signing in my opinion. B.J. Ryan could be really good, but only has one year of real closer experience. They'll be competitive but are still not in the class of the big two yet.

Surprise contributer- I think Shea Hillenbrand will have a very solid year with Glaus and Overbay added to the lineup.
Weakness factor- O-dog isn't there anymore to get a web gem every night and the lineup still includes unproven Reed Johnson, Alex Rios (who I actually think should be pretty good), Russ Adams, and Aaron Hill.

4. Baltimore Orioles- I really wanted to put the D'Rays here b/c in about two years I think their offense will be top 5 in the league, but I have to give the nod to Baltimore b/c of Rockin' Leo Mazzone. The starters could turn from a weakness to at least adequacy. The offense should be good, and I think Ramon Hernandez was a good signing and will deepen their lineup.

Surprise contributor- Daniel Cabrera. This guy's got really good stuff and combined with Mazzone could mean a much needed big year.
Weakness factor- The bullpen. Wow.

5. Tampa Ray Devil Rays- I enjoyed watching them last year and have the feeling about 50% of this team will end up playing for the Yankees about five years down the road. They've got a very nice mix of speed and power and can only get better.

Surprise contributor- Scott Kazmir. Had the Mets not traded him for Victor Zambrano, I might be inclined to call the Mets a legit World Series threat.
Weakness factor- Everyone else on the pitching staff. Seth McClung can throw about 100mph, but until he controls it, his era will be high reaching, too.

AL Central

1. Chicago White Sox- How can you not pick them to win it? Their rotation remains the best in baseball and if Jim Thome returns anywhere near to form, the middle of the order will be a bear. Although some of the fear put in the opponents heart will be gone since Carl Evereally insane is gone. Freaking dinosaurs.

Surprise contributer- Rob Mackowiak. Solid utility player that will give them flexibility and depth.
Weakness factor- Maybe the bullpen? I've heard Dustin Hermanson's back is as bad as BBL's and word from BBL is also that Bobby Jenks may be having Rick Ankiel like control problems.

2. Cleveland Indians- I really like the Indians personally. Although part of my affinity left when Coco Crisp left town. This team should be good, but I can't say that they improved from last year. I think trading Crisp was a bad idea and while Millwood didn't get any run support last year, he kept them in tons of games. Also, Bob Wickman is about 53 years old and really fat.

Surprise contributer- Paul Byrd is much steadier and valuable than he gets credit for.
Weakness factor- I don't see their lineup being wild card contender good.

3. Detroit Tigers- Tough call for me between the Twins and Tigers. I'll give Detroit the nod I guess. To me this is a team that if everything goes right, they could make a small run at the wild card, but more likely they'll be .500ish. They've got a lot of good hitters but nobody that really scares you.

Surprise contributer- Curtis Granderson.
Weakness factor- Jim Leyland death watch could be a distraction

4. Minnesota Twins- I've seen an "expert" actually predict them to win the Central. Well, this person works for cbs sportsline and therefore is a pretty good chance he makes his predictions by if he likes a team's logo. How can you have such awesome gamecenter and such terrible writers sportsline? Anywho, Johan will anchor a staff that should be pretty good, but may be a little too thin to get the job done considering a lineup that I think will be pretty terrible.

Surprise contributer- Justin Morneau. I think he will bounce back and probably be their most productive hitter.
Weakness factor- Tony Batista is their starting 3rd baseman.

5. Kansas City Royals- I almost hate to admit this, but I kind of am excited to see the Royals, which for many who know me is a rarity. It might just be b/c this team actually has some semblance of a major league team after last year's softball squad. Having said that, they will still be God awful.

Surprise contributer- Not really a surprise, but I think Reggie Sanders will definitely help this lineup more than he really should. Hopefully Alex Gordon can get up there and do some Ken Harvey like rookie damage.
Weakness factor- They're infield still might only hit a combined 50 hrs, leaving the outside chance that the kiss cam will still be the most exciting part of the game and send me back into a loathing of the Royals.

Al West

1. Oakland A's- A lot of people seem to really love this team. I think they'll be very good, but frankly I'm not in love with this team. I think a lot hinges on if Bobby Crosby and Nick Swisher have good years. Their starting rotation has the potential to be on par with the White Sox.

Surprise contributer- Dan Haren. He was good last year, and I think he will only get better.
Weakness factor- Already known for penny pinching, Billy Beane may have to spend all spare income on security. The combination of the city of Oakland and Milton Bradley? I think that's the picture in the dictionary under "volatile".

2. Seattle Mariners- A bit of a surprise here, but I think this team had a good offseason. I like the addition of Jarrod Washburn, especially when teamed up with Safeco field. And if Kenji Johjima is worth his price tag, the offense will be formidable. And Felix Hernandez is the man.

Surprise contributor- I'm going to go with Adrian Beltre. He didn't do much last year, but I expect him to bounce back and be more in the .280/30hr/100 rbi range.
Weakness factor- This team always seems to underachieve in some manner or another and Carl Everett may say something about his disbelief in coffee and/or rain and start a riot.

3. Anaheim Angles of Los Angeles, California of the United States of America, Earth- This to me is an aging team that passed its prime. Vladimir is good and all, but I think Garret Anderson has taken a step back and to be honest, I think their lineup is really weak. I wouldn't be surprised if they were finished 3rd of even last.

Surprise contributer- Kelvim Escobar. This guy is good. Just needs to put it all together.
Weakness factor- Do they have a catcher who can take advantage of the staff, let alone not be a dangerous liability on an already thin offense?

4. Texas Rangers- I may eat my words for putting them here later, since their lineup is awfully good. Some people like their rotation, but I don't buy Adam Eaton being all that good, or healthy, and something tells me Francisco Cordero will regress.

Surprise contributor- Brad Wilkerson could have a field day in the humidity of Texas and out of cavernous RFK. But he could also try to hit 50 hrs and hit .235.
Weakness factor- This team has absolutely no speed since Soriano is gone.

NL East

1. New York Mets- I could really see any of my top three teams winning this division, so this is kind of an instinct feeling. I think the general public have never really realized how good Carlos Delgado is and now that he's playing for the Mets, he might get the exposure to prove it. With the exception of second base, this lineup is stacked.

Surprise contributer- Xavier Nady wil be one of the better hitters in the 7 hole in the league.
Weakness factor- If Pedro goes down, so do the Mets hopes of winning the division. That pitching staff does not inspire confidence. I think the lineup makes up enough for it, though.

2. Philadelphia Phillies- This is the NL version of the Mariners in that they always seem to underachieve. But this lineup has the chance to be just ridiculous. Ryan Howard could be the NL HR leader if he gets a little more consistent against left handed pitchers.

Surprise contributer- Aaron Rowand is pretty good and should improve the defense.
Weakness factor- I'm not sure I buy Tom Gordon as a legitimate closer anymore. Especially in that park.

3. Atlanta Braves- Yes, this is the year I believe it all comes to an end. Boy do I hope I'm right. They still have a decent lineup and decent starting pitching, but I just don't think they have enough, especially with Leo Mazzone gone. Although Edgar Renteria will probably get good again and they'll have 35 rookies who are awesome and prove me wrong.

Surprise contributer- Horacio Ramirez. If he can stay healthy I think he's pretty good. I also think Adam Laroche will continue to improve.
Weakness factor- That's not a real strong bullpen and I expect Jorge Sosa's numbers to be significantly worse than last year.

4. Washington Nationals- Still marred by the ultimate screw job from MLB, the Nationals just don't have enough pieces to be a real contender. I think Soriano will still hit pretty well, but the left field experiment could go horribly wrong. Hopefully a new ballpark and greener pastures are on the way.

Surprise contributer- I'm drinking the J.T. kool aid about Ryan Zimmerman. Hopefully my fantasy team will reap the benefits.
Weakness factor- Some say winning a lot of one run games is a sign of a good team. I say it's a sign of almost losing.

5. Florida Marlins aka 2005 KC Royals with better future- The Memorial Stadium of Major League Baseball. So much selling out. I heard Miami is hoping the polar ice caps melt to put out the fire sale. Ba-zing.

Surprise contributer- Could be almost anyone since pretty much nobody on this team has any big league experience.
Weakness factor- Those who are surprise contributers will probably suck.

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals- Much like the AL West, I think this is a tough division to handicap. The Cardinals don't scare me as much as they did two or three years ago, but they still have a good ballclub. Moving into a new stadium could be an x-factor until the players get comfortable in the new confines. Also putting a dangerous animal in a new environment (i.e. Sidney Ponson) and anything can ensue.

Surprise contributer- Call it a gut feeling, but I think Juan Encarnacion is going to be better than people think.
Weakness factor- No glaring weakness here, but if Chris Carpenter's last month wasn't an aberration last year, this team could vulnerable. Edmonds isn't getting any younger, either.

2. Milwaukee Brewers- This is more of a hope than what I necessarily think will happen. I think there is a lot of parity between teams two through six in thie division, so this I'll put this more in the order of what I want to happen. I kind of think the Brewers are still a year or two away from being legit, but you never know. Maybe Miller Park's special brat sauce will be enough of an intangible for a second place finish.

Surprise contributer- All of their prospects are not really a surprise in fact they are the reason for all the optimism in Milwaukee, so I'll throw Jose Capellan out there from the bullpen b/c he throws really, really hard.
Weakness factor- Too green to handle the pressures of the optimism? Perhaps. Also, Ben Sheets must stay healthy.

3. Houston Astros- I don't really like the Astros for some reason, but they did go to the World Series last year. They also had Roger Clemens. And Andy Pettite pitched amazingly well. Those two factors may not be there this year. Jeff Bagwell's surgery was a blessing in disguise in terms of clubhouse tension.

Surprise contributer- Preston Wilson. He strikes out a lot, but the left field dimensions was originally designed for a little league field.
Weakness factor- I just think this team overachieved last year.

4. Chicago Cubs- 2004- Red Sox, 2005- White Sox, 2006- Not the Cubs. Sorry, MP. To borrow a line from JT, "if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd all have a merry christmas." A.K.A, if Mark Prior and Kerry Wood were healthy, the Cubs could be a title contender.

Surprise contributer- Matt Murton will hit 30 hrs according to MP, so I'll go with him. Most others on this team you know what you are getting from.
Weakness factor- The human body's vulnerability/curses.

5. Pittsburgh Pirates- This team is kind of like the baby Brewers in my mind. They've got potential for sure, and honestly if everything falls into place, I could see them finishing as high as 3rd in the division. I think the addition of veterans Sean Casey, Joe Randa, and Jeromy Burnitz will bring some legitimacy and experience to this really young core of talent already there. Jason Bay is basically Vladimir Guerrero when he played for Montreal and nobody knew who he was. One of the best 10 hitters in baseball and now he'll even have a little protection. They also should be one of the best defensive teams in baseball.

Surprise contributer- Oliver Perez has buckets of talent and is the key to putting the Pirates on the right track to respectibility.
Weakness factor- Hard to improve dramatically in a division that has improved itself.

6. Cincinnati Reds- Who knows with this team. They could be okay, but they seem to be MLB's version of purgatory to me. No more Jose Rijo = no more glory.

Surprise contributer- Aaron Harang. This guy is pretty damn good, and he's pretty damn good in a hitter's ballpark.
Weakness factor- Ken Griffey and Austin Kearns are to the Reds as Prior and Wood are to the Cubs.

NL West

1. San Francisco Giants- I expect a big bounce back for Jason Schmidt. Of course the wild card here is Barry Bonds and who knows what will happen with that mess. Still, this team has a deeper rotation than anyone else in the division and if Armando Benitez can stay healthy , the Giants will close out more games than last year. Matt Morris should be a solid addition.

Surprise contributer- I look for Steve Finley to bounce back a little from his horrific 2005 and give the team a lift. Randy Winn was hot since getting traded from Seattle last summer and teammates this spring say he is locked in like never before.
Weakness factor- Is Barry isn't dominating, I think he's a detriment to the team overall.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers- I'm kind of torn on this team. I like the addition of Rafael Furcal, but only b/c I don't drive on the LA freeway. If Nomar returns to some resemblence of his former self and Gagne and J.D. Drew stay healthy, this team definitely has enought talent to win the division. But they could also be an overpriced group of underachievers, too.

Surprise contributer- Brad Penny
Weakness factor- This team to me is stuck in a transition between having a lot of old guys before that deep farm system starts taking over.

3. San Diego Padres- I hope my favorite team can repeat the unforgettable and magical 2005 division win, but there was just so much freaking turnover to the roster that it's hard to tell. I think the team has a nice mix of veterans and young talents, but kind of seem like the Tigers of the AL. They've got a lot of decent players, but except for Jake Peavy, they don't have anyone that truly is a game changer. Hopefully Josh Barfield and Adrian Gonzalez are fast learners.

Surprise contributer- I think a move to Petco could help Shawn Estes have a pretty solid year. I expect an era in the 3.50-3.75 range with 12-15 wins.
Weakness factor- The bullpen may go from the club's biggest strength to a question mark. Also, Khalil Greene needs to stop being a potential star and actually do it.

4. Arizona Diamonbacks- I don't really have much of a feeling for this team. They will not be terrible, nor good. Will Luis Gonzalez play forever? Seems like he has been.

Surprise contributer- Orlando Hudson as mentioned in the Blue Jays preview (which I wrote about 2.5 hours ago now), is a very solid player and Brandon Webb may want to take a side trip to Vegas to elope with O-Dog b/c he is a hoover at second base between his glove and his big mouth.
Weakness factor- They are paying Russ Ortiz $8 million.

5. Colorado Rockies- I'd consider these guys a less explosive NL version of the Devil Rays. They've got a lot of young hitters who look like they have solid potential. Of course, they also play in the mountains. Todd Helton can only improve off of 2005, but his big drop off does make me question whether that steroid accusation was true.

Surprise contributer- I think Matt Holliday could continue to improve into one of the more dangerous hitters in the league. Also, any team with Jose Mesa gains some likeability in my book.
Weakness factor- Still very young and still very hard to find a pitcher who can be successful at Coors.

Playoff predictions

A.L.- Boston over Oakland
Chicago over New York, then Boston over Chicago

N.L.- St. Louis over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Mets, then St. Louis over S.F.

World Series- Boston over St. Louis. It's 2004 all over again!!!

A.L. mvp- David Ortiz
A.L. cy young- Rich Harden

N.L. mvp- Albert Pujols
N.L. cy young- Jason Schmidt

Did anyone read this entire post?

J.H. Naners